Call the outcome. Get paid if you're right.

Every market on the MUTEX Predictions desk is a question with an answer that a date or an event settles. Some have two sides, Yes and No. Others are an event with many outcomes, such as who wins an election or which price band Bitcoin ends the year in, and each outcome is its own Yes or No market. A match lists each team, and the draw where there can be one.

You buy contracts. A contract on the side that wins pays $1; one on the side that loses pays nothing. So a contract's price is the market's chance: Yes at 62¢ is a market that puts Yes at about 62%. The price moves as people buy and sell, and the desk shows every market's chance live, its move over 24 hours and a week of history.

The desk lists markets in Politics, Sports, Crypto, Economy, Culture, Tech and Esports. Browse them as cards or a table, sort them by top, 24-hour volume, total volume or closing soon, search by name, or open what is live right now. The Trending spotlight shows the biggest markets and the ones moving most today.

1. Move money in. From your Funding balance to Predictions, currently at least $5, with no MUTEX fee. It arrives in about a minute as your Prediction balance, which is what you bet with.
2. Pick a market and a side. Every Buy Yes or Buy No button opens the market with that outcome and side already picked, beside its chart and its rules.
3. Say how much, in dollars. The confirm step shows the contracts you get, what you pay, what you win if you are right and the fee, before anything is sent. If the price moves before the order fills, you get fewer contracts and never pay more than the amount shown.
4. Hold, sell or collect. The Open tab lists each position with what it is worth now. Sell part or all of it at the best bid any time the market trades, or hold it to the result.

An example, not a real market: 100 Yes contracts bought at 62¢ cost $62.00. What they return, before the fee:

A market that ends 50-50 pays 50¢ a contract. A market that is voided gives back what you paid, less the fee. The most you can lose on a buy is what you paid for it: there is no leverage and no margin call.

When a market settles, MUTEX claims each winning position for you, usually within minutes of the result, and the winnings land in your Prediction balance a few seconds later. You can also press Claim on the Open tab. A claim cannot pay twice, and it carries no fee.

The History tab keeps every buy, sell, claim and money move, with its fee, and you can share an ended bet from it as a card. Your Prediction balance goes back to Funding whenever you move it, ready to withdraw or use on another desk; money in an open bet stays put until you sell it or it settles.

Every buy and every sell pays one fee, shown on the confirm step before anything is sent. Its size depends on the market and the price, so the desk quotes it for each order rather than as one rate. The History tab shows the fee of every closed order.

• Moving money in and out. No MUTEX fee. What lands can differ slightly from what you sent, so the move shows an estimate of what arrives, in about a minute.
• Claiming a win. Free.
• Paper. Paper orders pay a simulated fee the same way, out of made-up dollars.

The account switch in the desk's header flips between your real Prediction balance and paper trading. Paper gives you a practice balance in made-up dollars beside your Paper Account. A paper buy or sell fills at once against the market's live order book, level by level from the best price, with the fee simulated, and each paper position settles on the market's real result.

You can add paper funds or reset the balance at any time. None of it is money: paper never touches your real balances, points or referrals.

The MUTEX assistant finds markets and their odds, bets in dollars, sells part or all of a bet, claims winnings and moves money in and out, each on a card you confirm. Ask “What are the odds on the Lakers?” or “Put $10 on Yes for rain tomorrow”.

A MUTEX AI agent can trade the Predictions desk from a plan you say in plain words. It bets from your own Prediction balance inside the fund and the caps you set, cannot move money in or out, and when you retire it the positions stay yours to sell or claim.

Your own agent can do the same with an agent key and the MUTEX MCP server: read the markets, quote, buy, sell, claim and move money between Funding and Predictions. See Agent keys and MCP and the agent key docs.

The current house numbers for the MUTEX Predictions desk. MUTEX can change them; the app always shows the live ones.

Buying and moving money in are not available in the US or South Korea, nor in sanctioned countries and regions. Selling, claiming and moving money back to Funding work everywhere, so nothing you hold is ever trapped. While MUTEX pauses the desk, buys and moves in stop, and the same exits stay open.

• A contract on the losing side is worth nothing at the result, so a buy can lose all of what you paid for it.
• A price is the market's view, not a forecast MUTEX makes. A market at 90% still loses one time in ten, or more.
• A sale needs a buyer: in a quiet market the best bid can be far under the last price, and a market can stop trading before its result.
• Each market settles by its own rules, shown on the market's page. Read them: a question can settle on a detail its title does not say.

Anyone with a view on what happens next: a race, a match, a rate decision, a price on a date. You put a price on that view, size it in dollars, and know the most you can lose before you buy. Start on paper to learn how prices move, then trade the real desk from the same screen.